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Malaysia Oilseeds and Products


Prepared by:
Raymond Hoh 


Executive Summary

Production

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reported that total crude palm oil (CPO) production increased by 2.7 percent to 1.4 MMT in January 2008. Output in Peninsular Malaysia rose 6.2 percent while East Malaysia's production decreased by 2.7 percent. Compared to January 2007, output during January 2008 was 28 percent higher. The increase in January could be due to some harvesting being brought forward due to the celebration of the lunar New Year in the month of February. The strong recovery of palms from biological stress in the past two years is reflected in the strong increase in yields. Post has revised CPO production to reach 3.8 MMT during the Jan-Mar period and to 17.2 MMT in 2007/08.

Price

Palm oil prices strengthened strongly during the month of February in line with the increase in global soyoil prices. The May future price for Malaysian palm oil soared to a new historic high at RM4,103/MT on Feb 29. Overall, the monthly average delivered CPO price rose sharply from RM3,221/MT in January to RM3528/MT in February. For comparison, the average CPO price for February 2007 was only RM1,927/MT. Refined/Bleached/Deodorized (RBD) Palm Oil FOB average price also rose from US1,030/MT in January to US$1,140/MT in February.

Stocks

An increase in palm oil production more than offset the increase palm oil exports and resulted in an increase in carryout stocks to 1.9 MMT at the end of January. With an expected seasonal downturn in CPO output in the Jan — Mar quarter, Post expects the stock level to further decrease to 1.5 MMT by the end of March.

Trade

Preliminary official report shows PO exports dropped by 24 percent to 1.0 MMT in January. According to Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services, PO exports rebound by 10% in the month of February. The high CPO prices might have caused some buyers to hold their orders for as long as they could.


Exchange Rate: US$1.00 = RM3.236 (Jan 30, 2008); RM3.194 (Feb 29, 2008)

Other Relevant Reports

Oilseeds & Products Annual (AGR Number MY7008)
http://www.fas.usda.gov/gainfiles/200703/146280491.pdf
Oilseeds & Products update (Jan) (AGR Number MY8001)
http://www.fas.usda.gov/gainfiles/200801/146293570.doc

 

Annual Situation

PS&D table for palm oil has been revised to reflect the strong recovery of palms from biological stress in the past two years. The improvement of yields is showing a similar trend of sharp rebounds from periods of biological stress such as 1997/98, 1999/2000, 2001/02 and 2003/04. In addition, about 494,000 hectares of oil palm are reaching peak production stage in 2007/08. The percentage of cultivated oil palm area in the more fertile soil of East Malaysia has increased in the past decade which also contributed to the increase in yields. Historical high palm oil prices encouraged an optimum usage of fertilizer and planters practice better agronomy. Harvesting the fruits at the optimum ripeness; picking loose fruitlets and processing the fruits at optimum time influence the oil recovery rate.

 

 



Revised
2005/06
Prelim
2006/07
Forecast
2007/08

(1,000 MT)

Beg Stock
1,436
1,800
1,463

Production
15,486
15,292
17,200

Imports
696 
265 
300 

Total Supply
17,618
17,357
18,963

Exports
12,781
13,703
14,300

Domestic Use 
3,037
2,191
3,163

Ending Stock
1,800
1,463
1,500

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Oil 



2006 1/
2007 2/
2007 1/
2008 2/


Oct-Dec
Oct-Dec
Jan-Mar
Jan-Mar


(1,000 MT)

Beg Stocks 3/
1,799
1,463
1,506
1,682

Prod- Pen. Mal 
2,127
2,524
1,685
2,070

— East Mal 
1,969
2,102
1,500
1,730

— Total
4,096
4,626
3,185
3,800

Imports
58 
53 
71 
80 

Total Supply
5,953
6,142
4,762
5,562

Exports 4/
3,940
3,930
2,818
3,450

Dom Disap 5/
507 
530 
607 
632 

End Stocks
1,506
1,682
1,337
1,480

1/ Revised;
2/ Forecast;
3/ Stocks include crude and refined for all Malaysia;
4/ Exports exclude shipments of fatty acid oil distillate
and all intra-Malaysia trade;
5/ Residual

Production



2006
2007
2007
2008


Jan-Dec
Jan 
Jan-Dec
Jan
(1000 MT)

CPO:

Pen. Malaysia
8,972
576 
8,627
788 

East Malaysia
6,909
539 
7,197
636 

— Total /1
15,881
1,115
15,824
1,424





Palm Kernel:
Malaysia
4,124
304 
4,097
373 





Palm Kernel Oil:
Malaysia
1,956
139 
1,908
182 





Palm Kernel Meal:
Malaysia
2,201
158 
2,152
203 

1/ Revised

Price



Local Crude
RBD Palm Oil 
RBD Olein
RBD Stearin


RM/MT
US$/MT
US$/MT
US$/MT
Feb 2007
1,927
567 
578 
526
Mar 
1,959
585 
588 
544
Apr 
2,209
648 
676 
624
May 
2,472
748 
752 
721
Jun 
2,609
792 
796 
777
Jul 
2,634
787 
795 
763
Aug 
2,538
771 
791 
743
Sep 
2,582
773 
794 
735
Oct 
2,771
834 
853 
796
Nov 
2,965
925 
937 
875
Dec 
2,956
925 
931 
880
Jan 2008 1/
3,221
1,030
1,037
973
Feb (till 27)
3,528
1,140
1,161
1,056

1/ Revised 2/ From June 2006, Prices are for West Malaysia only

Exchange Rate: US$1.00 = RM3.236 (Jan 30, 2008); RM3.194 (Feb 29, 2008)

Stock



2007
2007
2007
2008


Jan 
Nov 
Dec 1/
Jan 

(1,000 MT)

Crude P. Oil 
859 
977 
927 
988 

Processed PO 
616 
834 
755 
887 

— Total PO 
1,475
1,811
1,682
1,875





Palm Kernel
164 
198 
171 
146 

P. Kernel Oil 
363 
253 
269 
278 

1/ Revised

 

 

Date:  10.03.2008


Comments:

KIBXWGhBnhrt
One or two to reemmber, that is.

One or two to reemmber, that is., 28.08.2011 17:21:05


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