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Home / Bioethanol / News Russian Federation December wheat forecastExecutive Summary The December estimate of 2007 grain production for Russia is 80.4 million metric tons (mmt), up 2.3 percent from last year's crop. The latest estimate has been raised from the November figures by 0.7 mmt, including an increase in the wheat production estimate from 48.1 mmt to 48.3 mmt, and increases of 0.1 mmt for the barley and corn production estimates to 16.5 mmt and 3.8 mmt, respectively. Estimates have been raised due to bumper grain crops in the Siberian Federal district and other oblasts. Domestic wheat prices have stabilized at high levels, but wheat exports have continued at a rapid pace and reached a monthly record of 2.8 mmt in October 2007. Grain traders increased exports in October and continued wheat exports in November in order to close their contracts before a possible introduction of wheat export duties in January 2008. Barley exports were relatively low in October due to a small crop, and may cease in November after prohibitive export tariffs on barley came into force on November 12, 2007. Given that in July — November 2007, Russia exported approximately 9.5 mmt of grain, and based on the increased grain crop estimates, the total MY 2007 export estimate is raised from 12.0 mmt to 12.7 mmt, including 11.5 mmt of wheat, 1.05 mmt of barley, and nearly 150,000 metric tons of other grains, including corn, rice, and rye. Government interventions began on October 29, and by November 28 fewer than 240,000 metric tons of wheat were sold from the 1.5 mmt grain intervention fund. Grain was sold only to big flour mills connected with provincial administrations at below market prices, and these interventions have not influenced the grain market price. An increase in wheat export tariffs up to 40 percent ad valorum is expected in January 2008 if exports continue to grow and threaten domestic grain consumption. The 2007 Crop The Russian Ministry of Agriculture increased its grain crop estimate from 80 mmt to 81 mmt due to the bumper grain crop in Siberian Federal District, Orenburg oblast, and Kurgan oblast. Official data on grain production by region and crop will not be available before the end of January, but experts estimate the wheat crop at 47.9 — 48.5 mmt (up 2.7 mmt from last year). According to sources, the grain crop in the Siberian Federal District increased by almost 3.0 mmt from last year and reached 15.0 — 15.5 mmt. Reported data on grain crop production in agricultural enterprises as of November 13 is minimally changed from the October 30 report: total grain 65.74 mmt (up 0.3 mmt), including wheat — 40.55 mmt (up 0.15 mmt), barley 13.2 mmt (no increase), and corn — 2.82 mmt (up 0.22 mmt). On the assumption that the share of agricultural enterprises in grain production remains unchanged in 2007, the total bunker-weight grain crop as of November 13, 2007, may be estimated at 83.9 mmt. Meanwhile, the media reports that by mid-November Russia harvested 86.3 mmt of grain (bunker weight). The difference may be attributed either to enterprises under-reporting or to the increased private farmer share in grain production. Post raised the total grain crop production estimate by 0.7 mmt to 80.4 mmt, including an increase in the wheat production estimate from 48.1 mmt to 48.3 mmt, and a 0.1 mmt increase in the barley and corn production estimates to 16.5 mmt and 3.8 mmt, respectively. Another 0.3 mmt of the increase is attributed to greater production of rye and other grains, such as buckwheat and rice. Winter Sowing Progress Sources report that the total area sown to winter crops (both for grain and green chop) is 6-7 percent higher than in 2006. In agricultural enterprises winter crops were sown on 12.83 million hectares by November 13, compared with 11.71 million hectares on the same date a year ago. Winter grain-for-grain area in agricultural enterprises increased 10 percent from 11.41 million hectares to 12.54 million hectares. Area plowed for spring sowing also increased in agricultural enterprises by 12 percent from 23.79 million hectares on November 13, 2006 to 26.60 million hectares on the same data in 2007. The significant increase in plowed-for-spring-sowing area demonstrates that many farmers still rely on the traditional agro-technologies and crop rotation, rather than on minimum- or no-till systems in crop production. Trade According to SovEcon's preliminary data, Russia's grain exports in October 2007 reached a monthly record of 3.0 mmt, including 2.8 mmt of wheat and 200,000 metric tons of barley. Thus, the total grain exports in July — October, 2007 reached almost 7.8 mmt, including 7.1 mmt of wheat (without wheat flour) and 650,000 metric tons of barley. Experts estimate November's exports to decrease to 1.7mmt — 1.8 mmt due to prohibitive export duties on barley, logistical problems (shortage of railcars), and unfavorable weather in the sea ports. Grain exports in June — November 2007 are estimated at 9.5 mmt — 9.6 mmt. Experts expect that grain exports in December will not exceed 1.0 mmt due to seasonal logistical constraints. Sources report that grain traders are fulfilling their previous contracts, but are refraining from making new contracts for January — February, 2008, because further administrative restrictions of grain exports are envisaged in the beginning of CY 2008. However, given that the EU has lifted grain import quotas, Russia's exporters may increase export plans. Due to actual exports in July — November, 2007 and the increased crop estimate, Post raised the total grain export estimate for MY 2007 to 12.7 mmt, including 11.5 mmt of wheat, 1.05 mmt of barley, and up to 150,000 metric tons of other grains. Given the good grain crop in Kazakhstan, Russia's wheat imports are raised from 1.1 mmt to 1.4 mmt. Barley and corn imports estimates are unchanged, while rice imports are estimated at 200,000 metric tons. Russia's total grain imports are estimated at 2.0 mmt in MY 2007. Prices
Domestic prices have not changed since the end of October. In European Russia, class 3 wheat prices remain at 6,000 rubles per metric ton. Despite price stabilization, domestic trade in grain is not active. Present demand for food grain is partially filled with cheap wheat from the intervention fund, and demand for grain for feeding is expected to increase in January — April 2008, when stocks of grain are exhausted at feed mills and livestock and poultry farms. Consumption Total MY 2007 domestic grain consumption is estimated at 70.4 mmt (up approximately 2.0 mmt from MY 2006), including 34.25 mmt of feed grain consumption (up 1.0 mmt from MY 2006), and 20.8 mmt of food grain consumption (up 0.7 mmt from last year). Feed grain consumption is increasing due to expansion of livestock feeding under the National Priority Project, while increased food grain consumption is attributed primarily to consumer's reaction to growing retail food prices. Policy No changes have been made in grain export policy since the introduction of export tariffs on wheat and barley on November 12, 2007. Experts consider that the wheat export duty (10 percent ad valorem, but not less than 22 Euro per metric ton) will not curb wheat exports, while export duty on barley (30 percent ad valorem, but not less than 70 Euro per metric ton) will stop barley exports from Russia until this duty is lifted. In November, the Russian Government discussed the possibility of introducing prohibitive export duties (40 percent ad valorem) on wheat as well or a ban on wheat exports. The export ban is unlikely, as it requires some amendments to the federal legislature framework which cannot be made before the new legislative authority is elected and begins work. The prohibitive export duty, which may be introduced by the Resolution of the Government, is more likely, though Agricultural Minister Aleksey Gordeev said this week that import restrictions may not be needed in the new year. The Russian Grain Union is in the process of negotiations with the respective Government agencies on the time of introduction of these duties. The government has so far respected an unwritten agreement with Russian grain traders on the postponement of measures to further curb wheat exports until January 2008. Given the favorable wheat crop, strong domestic demand and high wheat prices, as well as some stabilization in the world wheat market, Russian wheat exports may slow down without additional measures in December 2007 — February 2008. Grain interventions continued in November 2007. By the end of November, ten trading sessions were held at the authorized commodity exchange, and 239,000 metric tons were sold, including 238,000 metric tons of class 3 wheat and 1,000 metric ton of class 4 wheat. More than 1.2 mmt of wheat remain in the state intervention fund. All information on the quantity of sales is on the website of the Commodity Exchange: http://www.namex.org/UserFiles/SI281107.doc
Given that the buyers may only be big flour mills connected with provincial administrations, the interventions function as a targeted subsidy for local flour mills and will not influence grain market prices due to the limited consumer effect. The average price of class 3 wheat sold was low — 5,082 rubles per metric ton and this price will not encourage grain producers to start selling grain. For, example, Irkutsk oblast's government tried to purchase food quality grain for the regional fund and set the ceiling price at 5,500 rubles per metric ton. Nobody volunteered to sell grain at this price.
Date: 06.12.2007 Leave your comment
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